Tensions across the Gulf have intensified after Iran warned neighbouring countries against assisting US military operations, while the United Arab Emirates suspended economic dealings with Tehran and commercial vessels continued to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian armed forces chief of staff Ali Abdollahi issued the warning on Wednesday, saying Tehran was closely monitoring Gulf countries hosting US military installations. He said any assistance or facilitation provided to American forces would be regarded as participation in US military operations.
The warning came shortly after the UAE announced that it was suspending trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran “until further notice” amid escalating regional tensions. The move is particularly significant because the UAE has historically been one of Iran’s major trading partners and hosts a substantial Iranian community.
Relations deteriorated further after Abu Dhabi accused Iran of firing two ballistic missiles towards the UAE. Emirati authorities said one fell into the sea while another landed within UAE territorial waters. Iran rejected the allegation, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei describing the accusations as baseless.
Meanwhile, uncertainty continues to disrupt commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
Preliminary Kpler data cited in the report showed that only six commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, down from nine the previous day and well below the 10-day daily average of 11 vessels. Shipowners have largely remained cautious amid uncertainty over navigation through the waterway.
Diplomatic signals from Washington have also remained contradictory. US envoy Jared Kushner said earlier this week that Washington and Tehran were engaged in “very positive and active conversations”. President Donald Trump subsequently said there were no talks taking place or scheduled.
The uncertainty follows the collapse of a framework US-Iran agreement aimed at reopening the trade corridor. Iraq has meanwhile sought special arrangements for its oil exports, with parliamentary speaker Haibat al-Halbousi raising the issue with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf in Baghdad.
The stakes extend well beyond Iran and its Gulf neighbours. Continued disruption in Hormuz could increase shipping insurance, freight and energy costs while placing additional pressure on countries dependent on Gulf oil and gas.
For now, the combination of Iran’s warning, the UAE’s economic measures and declining vessel traffic suggests that regional tensions remain far from resolved. Any assistance by Gulf states to US military operations could become another potential flashpoint, while uncertainty surrounding negotiations continues to discourage normal commercial shipping.
